新质生产力是促进体育产业高质量发展的重要驱动力。为了分析新质生产力对体育产业高质量发展的影响机制，基于我国20个省份在2015—2022年生成的面板数据，构建了中介效应模型、门槛效应模型以及空间溢出效应模型，实证检验新质生产力与体育产业高质量发展之间的影响机制。分析结果显示：1）新质生产力通过科技创新、数字技术、绿色低碳技术显著影响体育产业高质量发展；2）区域创新能力与产业结构合理化在新质生产力影响体育产业高质量发展过程中产生了中介效应；3）新质生产力对体育产业高质量发展产生的影响存在双门槛效应，且该效应变化呈现出“U”型非线性特征；4）某一地区的新质生产力能显著影响该地区体育产业高质量发展，但对其相邻地区会产生一定的负面影响。基于以上提出了相关建议。

New quality productivity is an important driving force for promoting the high-quality development of the sports industry. To analyze the impact mechanism of new productive forces on the high-quality development of the sports industry, this study constructs a mediating effect model, a threshold effect model, and a spatial spillover effect model based on panel data from 20 provinces in China from 2015 to 2022, and empirically tests the impact mechanism between new quality productivity and high-quality development of the sports industry. The results indicate that new quality productivity significantly affects the high-quality development of the sports industry through technological innovation, digital technology, and green low-carbon technology; Regional innovation capability and rationalization of industrial structure play a positive mediating effect between new quality productivity and sports industry; There is a significant double threshold effect between new quality productivity and high-quality development of the sports industry, and this effect exhibits a U-shaped nonlinear characteristic; The spatial spillover effect indicates that new quality productivity can effectively promote the development of local sports industry, but it has a certain negative impact on adjacent areas. Based on these findings, relevant recommendations are proposed.