教育资源应与人口变化相适应，这直接关系到教育强国目标的实现。运用文献研究法、数据分析等研究方法，基于小学和初中体育学科特定周课时与体育教师周课时量的测算，预测2025—2035年间我国义务教育阶段体育教师各年度的需求量，判断各年度体育教师数量的余缺状况。经研究认为：1）2025—2035年间义务教育阶段体育教师需求量随着年份的增长呈现下降趋势。基于A方案，2025—2035年间我国义务教育阶段体育教师需求量为114.28万人至77.25万人；基于B方案，2025—2035年间我国义务教育阶段体育教师需求量为99.46万人至67.25万人。2）基于A 方案，2025—2035年间义务教育阶段体育教师需求量存在缺口与过剩并存的现象，从2031年开始，义务教育阶段体育教师数量开始出现过剩；基于B 方案，2025—2035年间小学体育教师需求量存在缺口与过剩并存的现象，小学自2029年开始出现过剩，初中从2025年就开始出现过剩。基于测算数据，对我国义务教育下一阶段的体育师资配置建议为：严格依据教育部有关规定配备专任体育教师、基于高质量与适度原则调整体育师范生培养规模、基于实践需要弹性调配体育师资布局、做好义务教育阶段体育师资动态配置的预警监测、探索义务教育阶段体育教师退出办法。

By applying research methods such as literature review and data analysis, and based on the calculation methods of specific weekly class hours of physical education courses in primary and junior high schools and the weekly class hours of physical education teachers, the demand for physical education teachers in the compulsory education stage in China in each year from 2025 to 2035 was predicted, and the surplus and shortage status of physical education teachers in each year was determined. The research suggests that: 1) The demand for physical education teachers in the compulsory education stage will show a downward trend as the years go by from 2025 to 2035. Based on the total Plan A, the demand range for physical education teachers in the compulsory education stage in China from 2025 to 2035 is between 1.1428 million and 772,500. Based on the combined Plan B, the demand range for physical education teachers in the compulsory education stage in China from 2025 to 2035 is between 994,600 and 672,500. 2) Based on the total Plan A, there will be a coexistence of “shortage” and “excess” in the demand for physical education teachers in the compulsory education stage from 2025 to 2035. Starting from 2031, the number of physical education teachers in the compulsory education stage will begin to show an excess. Based on the combined Plan B, there will be a coexistence of “shortage” and “surplus” in the demand for physical education teachers. Surplus will occur in primary schools starting from 2029, and in junior high schools, it has already occurred in 2025. Based on the calculated data of the demand for physical education teachers in the compulsory education stage, the suggestions for the allocation of physical education teachers in China’s compulsory education stage in the next stage are as follows: Strictly follow the relevant regulations of the Ministry of Education to allocate full-time physical education teachers, moderately adjust the scale of physical education normal student training based on quality, flexibly balance the allocation of physical education teachers based on practical needs, do a good job in early warning and monitoring the dynamic allocation of physical education teachers in compulsory education, and explore the exit methods for physical education teachers in the compulsory education stage.